Palladium & Platinum Sector Analysis June 2025 Update!

 Palladium & Platinum Sector Analysis!

Video Analysis Link Below

https://youtu.be/asUZvG5iOOY

Why is the price of Platinum futures going higher?

The price of platinum futures is influenced by a combination of supply and demand dynamics, macroeconomic factors, and market sentiment. Here are the key reasons contributing to the recent rise in platinum futures prices based on available information:

Market Deficits and Supply Constraints: The platinum market has been in a structural deficit for multiple years, with 2023 and 2024 seeing significant shortfalls (e.g., over 1 million ounces in 2023). These deficits are expected to persist through at least 2028, driven by robust demand and limited supply growth. South Africa, which accounts for over 70% of global platinum production, has faced operational challenges like maintenance issues and power supply disruptions, reducing output. Additionally, potential export bans by Russia, a major producer, have raised concerns about further supply tightness. Strong Industrial Demand: Platinum is critical in the automotive industry, particularly for catalytic converters, which account for 30-44% of total demand. Despite the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), which don’t require platinum, demand from the automotive sector reached a seven-year high in Q1 2024, supported by easing supply-chain constraints and stricter emission regulations. Emerging demand from the hydrogen economy, where platinum is used in fuel cells and electrolysis, is also expected to grow significantly, potentially reaching 15% of total demand by 2030. Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policies: Geopolitical risks, such as potential sanctions on Russia or trade tariffs, have tightened the platinum market. For instance, fears of U.S. tariffs have led to significant inflows into NYMEX-approved warehouses, steepening the forward curve and supporting higher futures prices. These trade tensions are unlikely to ease soon, maintaining elevated exchange stocks and market deficits. Investment Demand and Market Sentiment: Investment demand for platinum is rising, with a 7% increase expected in 2025 to 420,000 ounces. Social media posts indicate growing bullish sentiment among traders, with some pointing to platinum breaking out of a 15-year downtrend and speculators doubling their net long positions. Jewelry demand also surged 300% year-on-year in Q1 2025, further supporting prices.

Macroeconomic Factors: A weaker U.S. dollar can make platinum, priced in USD, more attractive to foreign buyers, boosting demand. Additionally, inflation expectations and interest rate cut speculation (e.g., in May 2024) have supported precious metals prices, including platinum. Conversely, a stronger dollar or inflationary pressures from protectionist policies could pose headwinds, but current market dynamics favor upward price movement. Technical Breakouts and Price Momentum: Platinum futures have shown strong technical signals, with prices breaking out on weekly, monthly, and quarterly timeframes. The current price of $1,170.65 per troy ounce (as of June 7, 2025) reflects a 20.36% increase over the past month and 20.87% year-on-year, hitting a 52-week high. This momentum, coupled with declining above-ground stocks (projected to fall to 2.5 million ounces in 2025), suggests strong upside potential. Summary: Platinum futures prices are rising due to persistent market deficits, constrained supply from major producers, strong demand from automotive and emerging hydrogen sectors, geopolitical risks, increasing investment and jewelry demand, and favorable technical price patterns. However, risks like substitution with palladium or a slowdown in industrial demand due to economic uncertainty could temper gains. Always conduct your own research before trading, as market conditions are volatile.

Natural Gas EIA Storage Report Showing a 37B March 27th 2025

 

 Video analysis Link Below

https://youtu.be/_RbGLgSTRwA

Natural Gas EIA Storage Report Showing a 37B March 27th 2025

 

The EIA natural gas storage report showing a 37 billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection for the week ending March 21, 2025, aligns closely with expectations, as forecasts hovered around 34-37 Bcf based on available sentiment and estimates. This build indicates a shift from the prior week's modest 9 Bcf increase, suggesting a notable uptick in storage activity. Compared to historical benchmarks, this injection contrasts with the five-year average for this time of year, which typically sees a withdrawal of around 31 Bcf, pointing to milder weather or reduced demand pressures last week.

 

Looking at the broader context, U.S. natural gas inventories now stand at 1,744 Bcf. That’s 557 Bcf below last year’s level at this time and 122 Bcf under the five-year average of 1,866 Bcf. This tighter supply situation could lend some support to prices, though the market’s reaction often hinges on whether the reported number deviates significantly from consensus. At 37 Bcf, it’s right in line with what traders anticipated, so I wouldn’t expect a dramatic price swing solely from this release—more like a steadying effect unless other factors (like weather forecasts or production shifts) take the spotlight.

 

Current dynamics show production holding strong at 106.6 Bcf/day (up 4.1% year-over-year), while demand has softened to 81.1 Bcf/day (down 5.4% year-over-year), possibly reflecting seasonal transitions or efficiency gains. LNG exports are also robust at 15.8 Bcf/day, up 3.5% week-over-week, which continues to drain domestic supply and could keep inventories from rebuilding too quickly. High wind generation last week, as some have noted, likely contributed to this beefier injection by displacing gas-fired power demand.

 

My take? This report reinforces a market in transition—supply is solid, but demand isn’t soaking it up as fast as last year. Prices might nudge up slightly if traders focus on the below-average stocks, but without a surprise in the data, it’s more of a “hold the line” moment than a game-changer.

Fading Freeze: Why Natural Gas Prices Are Thawing Out!

 

Video Analysis Link Below!

https://youtu.be/DXkxzGVO8Pw

 

The sentiment surrounding the upcoming EIA natural gas storage report, due tomorrow, March 13, 2025, appears mixed but leans cautiously bearish based on available forecasts and market commentary as of today, March 12, 2025, 4:35 PM CDT.

 

Analysts and traders are anticipating a storage withdrawal for the week ending March 7, though specific consensus estimates vary. Some analyst highlighted a bearish surprise in the previous EIA report (March 6), which showed an 80 Bcf withdrawal—smaller than the expected 94 Bcf. This miss, coupled with comments about weaker-than-anticipated draws across storage regions and potential gas-to-coal switching, suggests a softening demand picture that could carry forward. 

 

For tomorrow’s report, indicates a smaller draw than market consensus, hinting at another possible bearish surprise if inventories decline less than expected.

 

Fundamentally, the backdrop supports this cautious sentiment. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released March 11, notes that cold weather in January and February drove large withdrawals, leaving inventories 4% below the five-year average by January’s end. However, with March typically marking the tail end of the heating season, demand may be easing. Forecasts from the STEO suggest consumption in March will drop to 93 Bcf/d (still 3% above the five-year average), but milder weather could temper withdrawals further. 

 

That said, surprises are possible. Natural gas prices are sensitive to weather shifts, and any late-season cold snap could boost demand and tighten inventories more than expected, flipping sentiment bullish. Futures markets, with April 2025 NYMEX contracts closing around $3.959/MMBtu last week (per the EIA’s March 6 update), show traders are pricing in some stability but remain reactive to storage data.

 

In summary, sentiment ahead of tomorrow’s report tilts bearish due to expectations of a potentially smaller-than-average draw, ample supply signals, and fading winter demand. However, the market’s volatility means a bullish shift could emerge if the data deviates significantly from these projections.