Fading Freeze: Why Natural Gas Prices Are Thawing Out!

 

Video Analysis Link Below!

https://youtu.be/DXkxzGVO8Pw

 

The sentiment surrounding the upcoming EIA natural gas storage report, due tomorrow, March 13, 2025, appears mixed but leans cautiously bearish based on available forecasts and market commentary as of today, March 12, 2025, 4:35 PM CDT.

 

Analysts and traders are anticipating a storage withdrawal for the week ending March 7, though specific consensus estimates vary. Some analyst highlighted a bearish surprise in the previous EIA report (March 6), which showed an 80 Bcf withdrawal—smaller than the expected 94 Bcf. This miss, coupled with comments about weaker-than-anticipated draws across storage regions and potential gas-to-coal switching, suggests a softening demand picture that could carry forward. 

 

For tomorrow’s report, indicates a smaller draw than market consensus, hinting at another possible bearish surprise if inventories decline less than expected.

 

Fundamentally, the backdrop supports this cautious sentiment. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released March 11, notes that cold weather in January and February drove large withdrawals, leaving inventories 4% below the five-year average by January’s end. However, with March typically marking the tail end of the heating season, demand may be easing. Forecasts from the STEO suggest consumption in March will drop to 93 Bcf/d (still 3% above the five-year average), but milder weather could temper withdrawals further. 

 

That said, surprises are possible. Natural gas prices are sensitive to weather shifts, and any late-season cold snap could boost demand and tighten inventories more than expected, flipping sentiment bullish. Futures markets, with April 2025 NYMEX contracts closing around $3.959/MMBtu last week (per the EIA’s March 6 update), show traders are pricing in some stability but remain reactive to storage data.

 

In summary, sentiment ahead of tomorrow’s report tilts bearish due to expectations of a potentially smaller-than-average draw, ample supply signals, and fading winter demand. However, the market’s volatility means a bullish shift could emerge if the data deviates significantly from these projections.